Really sharp breakdown. Especially appreciated the comparison to WWI.
What stood out to me the most was the cost disparities. We're burning million-dollar interceptors built for the price of a PC. That flips deterrence on its head. If our playbook still assumes dominance via expensive platforms, the game has changed.
Do you think that the US defense base is structurally capable of adopting a quantity over quality mindset? Or do you think we will have to see a full culture shift first?
I think the US defense base is slowly moving in the right direction. I also think it’s possible to have good quality and quantity. Cost and mass production are the big problems. If we let primary defense contractors continue to bend the U.S. government over then the next war is already lost.
Appreicate your response! I'm a huge fan of what a16z is doing with American Dynamism (that's pretty much what my own publication is all about). And I completely agree about the defense giants abusing the system. I published an article this morning about the clash of primes vs. startups like the ones you mentioned. If you have a moment, I'd love to hear your thoughts on it.
It will take some radical change to reset the defense pipeline, but like you said, its starting to move that way. I'm hopeful that once startups get their foot in their door, we'll see a lot of progress. 🤞
Really sharp breakdown. Especially appreciated the comparison to WWI.
What stood out to me the most was the cost disparities. We're burning million-dollar interceptors built for the price of a PC. That flips deterrence on its head. If our playbook still assumes dominance via expensive platforms, the game has changed.
Do you think that the US defense base is structurally capable of adopting a quantity over quality mindset? Or do you think we will have to see a full culture shift first?
I think the US defense base is slowly moving in the right direction. I also think it’s possible to have good quality and quantity. Cost and mass production are the big problems. If we let primary defense contractors continue to bend the U.S. government over then the next war is already lost.
I think these are all promising:
https://www.launchfirestorm.com
https://havocai.org
https://shield.ai
Worth a read as well:
https://a16z.com/american-dynamism/
Appreicate your response! I'm a huge fan of what a16z is doing with American Dynamism (that's pretty much what my own publication is all about). And I completely agree about the defense giants abusing the system. I published an article this morning about the clash of primes vs. startups like the ones you mentioned. If you have a moment, I'd love to hear your thoughts on it.
https://lukeringlein.substack.com/p/inside-the-new-arms-race-startups?r=5vlhka
It will take some radical change to reset the defense pipeline, but like you said, its starting to move that way. I'm hopeful that once startups get their foot in their door, we'll see a lot of progress. 🤞
Just skimmed over it and like what I saw! I’ll sit down tomorrow AM to give it a thorough read and I’ll drop a comment.
I appreciate it!